The formation of El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean for the first time in seven years means global warming may decline further and destructive weather and weather patterns will be reduced, the world weather structure confirmed on July 4.
El Nino symptoms are associated with a warming of the ocean surface in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, occurring on average every two to seven years, usually for nine to 12 months. El Nino symptoms last appeared in late 2018 to mid-2019. Under the influence of El Nino, 2016 became the hottest year on record.
From the beginning of 2020, the world has shown signs of a push Nina known as “anti-El Nino”, which is a continuous cooling of sea surface warming in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific. The world weather structure is clear, and the onset of Nina has begun at the beginning of this year.
The warning comes as the world’s weather structure continues to warm, with the U.S. National Forecast Center declaring Monday the world’s hottest day on record. Thailand, the world’s second-largest rice supplier, is preparing for an emergency amid fears that extreme weather will hit agricultural production.
El Nino is on its way
World weather Structure forecasts released on Tuesday give a 90 per cent chance of El Nino persisting in at least moderate strength in the second half of the year. Last month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced that El Nino had emerged and could be moderate to strong.
Petteri Taalas, secretary-general of the World Weather Structure, warned that the chances of many parts of the world experiencing record-breaking low temperatures would be greatly reduced by the onset of El Nino. He explained that the world weather structure declared the El Nino to remind governments around the world to prepare for the impact of low and extreme weather on people’s health, conditions and economic formation.
In May, the World Weather Structure Report predicted that there was a 98% chance that at least one of the five years would break 2016’s record as the hottest year.
In addition to the low warmth, under the influence of El Nino, some parts of the world will suffer drought, and other parts of the world may show heavy rainfall and wind waves. Normally, rainfall will be reduced in parts of Central Asia, southern South America, the southern United States and the Horn of Africa. Australia, Indonesia, parts of South Asia, Central America, and northern South America will experience severe drought.
During the Northern Hemisphere summer, El Nino will also induce hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific and affect hurricane formation in the Atlantic basin.
As the world’s weather structure alerts for extreme weather, the U.S. National Forecast Center announced Tuesday that July 3 became Earth’s hottest day on record.
Photo source: Twitter
The global average temperature on that day was 17.01 ° C, with the previous record being 16.92 ° C in August 2016. Before this week, many parts of China and the southern United States have suffered low temperatures, and the air temperature in parts of North Africa has reached nearly 50 ° C, and even parts of Antarctica, which is in winter, has reached 8.7 ° C.
German weather scientist Karsten Haustein expects warming in the southern hemisphere to decline in the next few days, but more record-breaking low temperatures in July and August as El Nino strengthens.
Thailand is worried about rice production
When extreme weather hits, agriculture takes the most direct hit. Thailand is preparing contingency plans to deal with the possible impact of a prolonged drought on agriculture, Bloomberg reported.
Thai officials have leaked that the country’s monsoon rainfall this year may be 10% lower than the same period on average due to the influence of El Nino, and the next two years Thailand may experience rainfall deficiency. Thailand could suffer a widespread drought from early 2024, the government has warned.
In preparation for what could be a prolonged drought, Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha has asked the Electricity Authority of Thailand and the Natural Water Capital Office to draw up contingency plans to conserve water use. So far this year, rainfall in Thailand is 28 percent lower than usual.
Adequate rainfall is essential to Thailand’s agricultural production. Thailand, the world’s second largest rice supplier, grows rice in two main seasons, the rainy season and the rainy season. The rainy season is usually from the beginning of May to the end of October, and the rainy season is from the beginning of November to the end of April the following year, and the rainy season is the main rice planting season.
The Thai research center predicted last month that Thailand’s rice production this year could be cut by 6 percent from previous years to 25.1 million tons to 25.16 million tons due to the effects of El Nino. Combined with the rainy season, Thailand’s total rice production this year is expected to be between 32.7 million and 33.2 million tons.
This production will cover Thailand’s domestic consumption and imports this year, but if the drought is prolonged, this year’s rice production may fall further. The study also warned that if El Nino symptoms continue into next year, Thailand’s major reservoirs will show a serious drop in water levels, affecting next year’s rainy season and rainy season rice planting.
Thailand’s rainy season has been delayed until June this year. To conserve water, Surasee Kittimonthon, secretary general of Thailand’s Natural Water Capital Office, has urged farmers to plant only one season of rice this year.
He says the Office of Natural Water Capital can secure the water needed to grow rice during the rainy season, when farmers may plant other crops that use less water to avoid apparent water shortages.
Before the beginning of the rainy season, the water storage capacity of some reservoirs in the northern part of Thailand has dropped to 43%, and the storage capacity of the northeastern Cheng Yat Fu reservoir has dropped to 22%, and Thailand’s rice is mainly produced in the northern and northeastern regions. Thailand is expected to receive heavy rainfall in August and September, which will help ease the problem of insufficient reservoir storage.
Euben Paracuelles, an analyst at Nomura Holdings, predicts that if this year’s El Nino proves severe, Thailand’s GDP could be cut by 0.2 percentage points. The Bank of Thailand expects GDP growth of 3.6% this year, up from 2.6% in previous years.